@article{fdi:010063945,
  title = {{F}ire evolution in the radioactive forests of {U}kraine and {B}elarus : future risks for the population and the environment},
  author = {{E}vangeliou, {N}. and {B}alkanski, {Y}. and {C}ozic, {A}. and {H}ao, {W}. {M}. and {M}ouillot, {F}lorent and {T}honicke, {K}. and {P}augam, {R}. and {Z}ibtsev, {S}. and {M}ousseau, {T}. {A}. and {W}ang, {R}. and {P}oulter, {B}. and {P}etkov, {A}. and {Y}ue, {C}. and {C}adule, {P}. and {K}offi, {B}. and {K}aiser, {J}. {W}. and {M}oller, {A}. {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n this paper, we analyze the current and future status of forests in {U}kraine and {B}elarus that were contaminated after the nuclear disaster in 1986. {U}sing several models, together with remote-sensing data and observations, we studied how climate change in these forests may affect fire regimes. {W}e investigated the possibility of {C}s-137 displacement over {E}urope by studying previous fire events, and examined three fire scenarios that depended on different emission altitudes of {C}s-137, assuming that 10% of the forests were affected by fires. {F}ield measurements and modeling simulations confirmed that numerous radioactive contaminants are still present at these sites in extremely large quantities. {F}orests in {E}astern {E}urope are characterized by large, highly fire-prone patches that are conducive to the development of extreme crown fires. {S}ince 1986, there has been a positive correlation between extreme fire events and drought in the two contaminated regions. {L}itter carbon storage in the area has doubled since 1986 due to increased tree mortality and decreased decomposition rates; dead trees and accumulating litter in turn can provide fuel for wildfires that pose a high risk of redistributing radioactivity in future years. {I}ntense fires in 2002, 2008, and 2010 resulted in the displacement of {C}s-137 to the south; the cumulative amount of {C}s-137 re-deposited over {E}urope was equivalent to 8% of that deposited following the initial {C}hernobyl disaster. {H}owever, a large amount of {C}s-137 still remains in these forests, which could be remobilized along with a large number of other dangerous, long-lived, refractory radionuclides. {W}e predict that an expanding flammable area associated with climate change will lead to a high risk of radioactive contamination with characteristic fire peaks in the future. {C}urrent fire-fighting infrastructure in the region is inadequate due to understaffing and lack of funding. {O}ur data yield the first cogent predictions for future fire incidents and provide scientific insights that could inform and spur evidence-based policy decisions concerning highly contaminated regions around the world, such as those of {C}hernobyl.},
  keywords = {carbon stock ; {C}esium-137 ; {C}hernobyl ; climate change ; fire risk ; litter ; redistribution ; wildfires ; {EUROPE} ; {UKRAINE} ; {BIELORUSSIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}cological {M}onographs},
  volume = {85},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {49--72},
  ISSN = {0012-9615},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.5061/dryad.33mn2},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010063945},
}