Andrello Marco auteur aut IRD Mouillot D. auteur aut IRD Somot S. auteur aut IRD Thuiller W. auteur aut IRD Manel S. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access AimTo study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf. LocationThe Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside. MethodsUsing an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. ResultsWe show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. Main conclusionsClimate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics. specialized Biophysical model conservation planning Epinephelus marginatus larval dispersal larval growth rate reproductive timing MEDITERRANEE 036 040 021 020 21 2 139-150 2015 1366-9516 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010063671 10.1111/ddi.12250 1366-9516 [F B010063671] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010063671 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2015/02/010063671.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2015-03-03 2024-01-22 fdi:010063671 fre