@article{fdi:010063671,
  title = {{A}dditive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas},
  author = {{A}ndrello, {M}arco and {M}ouillot, {D}. and {S}omot, {S}. and {T}huiller, {W}. and {M}anel, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}im{T}o study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas ({MPA}s) and larval supply to the continental shelf. {L}ocation{T}he {M}editerranean {S}ea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense {MPA} network but resource overexploitation outside. {M}ethods{U}sing an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the {M}editerranean {S}ea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among {MPA}s and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae. {R}esults{W}e show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. {H}owever, connectance within the {MPA} network would increase by 5% as more northern {MPA}s would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. {W}e also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive. {M}ain conclusions{C}limate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of {MPA} networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics.},
  keywords = {{B}iophysical model ; conservation planning ; {E}pinephelus marginatus ; larval dispersal ; larval growth rate ; reproductive timing ; {MEDITERRANEE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{D}iversity and {D}istributions},
  volume = {21},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {139--150},
  ISSN = {1366-9516},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1111/ddi.12250},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010063671},
}