@article{fdi:010063014,
  title = {{P}rojecting future drought in {M}editerranean forests : bias correction of climate models matters !},
  author = {{R}uffault, {J}. and {M}artin-{S}t{P}aul, {N}.{K}. and {D}uffet, {C}. and {G}oge, {F}. and {M}ouillot, {F}lorent},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{G}lobal and regional climate models ({GCM} and {RCM}) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. {I}n this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in {M}editerranean forests in southern {F}rance for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). {W}e used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same {RCM} simulations but using two different correction methods (quantile mapping or anomaly method). {D}rought, defined here as periods when vegetation functioning is affected by water deficit, was described in terms of intensity, duration and timing. {O}ur results showed that the choice of the bias correction method had little effects on temperature and global radiation projections. {H}owever, although both methods led to similar predictions of precipitation amount, they induced strong differences in their temporal distribution, especially during summer. {T}hese differences were amplified when the climatic data were used to force the water balance model. {O}n average, the choice of bias correction leads to 45 % uncertainty in the predicted anomalies in drought intensity along with discrepancies in the spatial pattern of the predicted changes and changes in the year-to-year variability in drought characteristics. {W}e conclude that the choice of a bias correction method might have a significant impact on the projections of forest response to climate change.},
  keywords = {{FORET} ; {SECHERESSE} ; {PREVISION} ; {DEFICIT} {HYDRIQUE} ; {BILAN} {HYDRIQUE} ; {MODELE} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {PREVISION} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {METHODE} ; {TEMPERATURE} ; {PLUIE} ; {PRECIPITATION} ; {DISTRIBUTION} {SPATIALE} ; {ETUDE} {REGIONALE} ; {ETUDE} {COMPARATIVE} ; {CHANGEMENT} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {RADIATION} ; {FRANCE} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{T}heoretical and {A}pplied {C}limatology},
  volume = {117},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {113--122},
  ISSN = {0177-798{X}},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00704-013-0992-z},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010063014},
}