Seferan R. auteur aut IRD Bopp L. auteur aut IRD Gehlen M. auteur aut IRD Swingedouw D. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Guilyardi E. auteur aut IRD Servonnat J. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30 degrees N-30 degrees S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems. specialized forecast ecosystem management marine biogeochemistry 036 032 020 111 32 11646-11651 2014 0027-8424 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010062436 10.1073/pnas.1315855111 0027-8424 [F B010062436] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010062436 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2014/09/010062436.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2014-10-02 2017-08-23 fdi:010062436 fre