@article{fdi:010062436,
  title = {{M}ultiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity},
  author = {{S}eferan, {R}. and {B}opp, {L}. and {G}ehlen, {M}. and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {G}uilyardi, {E}. and {S}ervonnat, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}ith the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. {H}owever, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, p{H}, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. {A}mong these, the net primary productivity ({NPP}) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. {I}ndeed, in regions like the tropical {P}acific (30 degrees {N}-30 degrees {S}), {NPP} exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. {H}ere, we investigate predictions of {NPP} variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an {E}arth system model within the tropical {P}acific. {R}esults suggest a predictive skill for {NPP} of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). {W}e attribute the higher predictability of {NPP} to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. {T}hese results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.},
  keywords = {forecast ; ecosystem management ; marine biogeochemistry},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica},
  volume = {111},
  numero = {32},
  pages = {11646--11651},
  ISSN = {0027-8424},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1315855111},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010062436},
}