Cai W. J. auteur aut IRD Borlace S. auteur aut IRD Lengaigne Matthieu auteur aut IRD van Rensch P. auteur aut IRD Collins M. auteur aut IRD Vecchi G. auteur aut IRD Timmermann A. auteur aut IRD Santoso A. auteur aut IRD McPhaden M. J. auteur aut IRD Wu L. X. auteur aut IRD England M. H. auteur aut IRD Wang G. J. auteur aut IRD Guilyardi E. auteur aut IRD Jin F. F. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access El Nino events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as 'the climate event of the twentieth century'(1,2), and the 1982/83 extreme El Nino(3), featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Nino, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems(4,5), agriculture(6), tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide(3,7-9). Potential future changes in such extreme El Nino occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble(12). The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters(13,14), facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region. specialized PACIFIQUE ZONE EQUATORIALE 032 021 020 4 2 111-116 2014 1758-678X https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061887 10.1038/nclimate2100 1758-678X [F B010061887] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061887 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2014/05/010061887.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2014-05-28 2017-08-23 fdi:010061887 fre