Bacaër Nicolas auteur aut IRD Dads E. A. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access For a certain class of multi-type branching processes in a continuous-time periodic environment, we show that the extinction probability is equal to (resp. less than) 1 if the basic reproduction number is less than (resp. bigger than) 1. The proof uses results concerning the asymptotic behavior of cooperative systems of differential equations. In epidemiology the extinction probability may be used as a time-periodic measure of the epidemic risk. As an example we consider a linearized SEIR epidemic model and data from the recent measles epidemic in France. Discrete-time models with potential applications in conservation biology are also discussed. specialized Branching process Extinction probability Basic reproduction number Seasonality Epidemic FRANCE 020 050 68 3 533-548 2014 0303-6812 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061746 10.1007/s00285-012-0623-9 0303-6812 [F B010061746] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061746 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2014/03/010061746.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2014-04-02 2017-08-23 fdi:010061746 fre