@article{fdi:010061446,
  title = {{S}easonal precipitation variability in regional climate simulations over {N}orthern basins of {T}unisia},
  author = {{B}argaoui, {Z}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {L}awin, {E}. {A}. and {S}ervat, {E}ric},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{N}orthern {T}unisia is the rainiest part of the country where most of the water management structures (dams, reservoirs, etc) are located. {I}ts strategic situation with respect to surface water resources encourages the investigation of the climate change impacts projected by climate models. {T}he goal of this study is first to compare the observed precipitation with climate model outputs, and then to evaluate the future changes projected by different climate models. {T}he study area is subdivided into four regions: the upstream and downstream transboundary {M}edjerda basin, the northern coastal basins and the eastern coastal basins. {A} database provided by the {T}unisian hydrological service includes 388 stations with complete monthly precipitation data over the period 1961-2000. {A}n ensemble of {R}egional {C}limate {M}odels ({RCM}) simulations provided by the {E}uropean {U}nion-funded project {ENSEMBLES} are used. {S}ix {RCM} model runs ({CNR}-{A}, {DMI}-{A}, {DMI}-{B}, {ICT}-{E}, {SMH}-{B} and {SMH}-{E}) are analysed, for the control period 1961-2000 and two projection periods, 2011-2050 and 2051-2090. {T}he models efficiency in reproducing seasonal precipitation amounts and variability is evaluated. {A} 1-km monthly precipitation reference grid is computed through the interpolation of rainfall observations during the period 1961-2000 with kriging techniques. {M}onthly precipitation series averaged over the four basins are built for comparison during the control period. {T}he {RCM} outputs are evaluated with respect to the annual precipitation cycle and rainfall frequency distribution using robust statistics. {F}or the control period, features of the seasonal regimes are well reproduced by all models. {I}t is found that models underestimate seasonal precipitation on average by 20%. {T}he discrepancy between model outputs and observations depends on the season. {F}or the future, in summer and autumn the different models do not project major changes in the seasonal distributions. {H}owever, for winter and spring, all the models project a significant decrease of precipitations.},
  keywords = {{T}unisia ; precipitation ; climate change ; regional climate models ; {TUNISIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{I}nternational {J}ournal of {C}limatology},
  volume = {34},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {235--248},
  ISSN = {0899-8418},
  year = {2014},
  DOI = {10.1002/joc.3683},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010061446},
}