Tramblay Yves auteur aut IRD Neppel L. auteur aut IRD Carreau Julie auteur aut IRD Najib K. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 19582008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area. specialized stationarity heavy rainfall frequency analysis Mediterranean POT FRANCE 062 58 2 280-294 2013 0262-6667 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060736 10.1080/02626667.2012.754988 0262-6667 [F B010060736] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060736 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2013/04/010060736.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2013-05-02 2017-08-23 fdi:010060736 fre