@article{fdi:010060333,
  title = {{C}limate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the {H}umboldt {C}urrent system},
  author = {{B}rochier, {T}imoth{\'e}e and {E}chevin, {V}incent and {T}am, {J}. and {C}haigneau, {A}lexis and {G}oubanova, {K}aterina and {B}ertrand, {A}rnaud},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {H}umboldt {C}urrent {S}ystem ({HCS}) sustains the worlds largest small pelagic fishery. {W}hile a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric {CO}2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. {R}ecent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric {CO}2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off {P}eru and increase off {C}hile. {H}ere we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. {W}e used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. {N}umerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the {HCS} from global simulations forced by pre-industrial ({PI}), 2x{CO}2 and 4x{CO}2 scenarios. {A} biogeochemical model is applied to the {PI} and 4x{CO}2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. {W}e test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: {O}ne corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. {I}t appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. {H}owever, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. {T}he underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. {O}ur results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the {HCS} with strong ecological, economic and social consequences.},
  keywords = {climate change ; {H}umboldt current system ; ichthyoplankton ; numerical ; model ; nursery ; oxygen minimum zone ; retention ; small pelagic fish ; upwelling ; {OCEAN} {PACIFIQUE} ; {PEROU} ; {CHILI} ; {PACIFIQUE} {EST} ; {PACIFIQUE} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {19},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {1841--1853},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.12184},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060333},
}