Roudier P. auteur aut IRD Sultan Benjamin auteur aut IRD Quirion P. auteur aut IRD Baron C. auteur aut IRD Alhassane A. auteur aut IRD Traoré S.B. auteur aut IRD Muller B. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access This work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA-H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. Simulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches +31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value. specialized PLANTE CULTIVEE PRODUCTION AGRICOLE PREVISION CLIMATIQUE PRECIPITATION PLUIE SAISON HUMIDE MODELE MATHEMATIQUE FERTILISATION DU SOL SEMIS MILLET NIGER 072AGRCLI01 32 5 759-771 2012 0899-8418 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060254 10.1002/joc.2308 0899-8418 [F B010060254] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060254 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/depot/2014-01-02/010060254.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2014-01-02 2014-04-29 fdi:010060254 fre