@article{fdi:010060254,
  title = {{A}n ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in {SW} {N}iger},
  author = {{R}oudier, {P}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {Q}uirion, {P}. and {B}aron, {C}. and {A}lhassane, {A}. and {T}raor{\'e}, {S}.{B}. and {M}uller, {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in {N}iger. {W}e quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. {E}ighteen management strategies are assessed. {C}orresponding yields are computed using the {SARRA}-{H} crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. {S}imulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches +31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. {T}hese results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value.},
  keywords = {{PLANTE} {CULTIVEE} ; {PRODUCTION} {AGRICOLE} ; {PREVISION} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {PRECIPITATION} ; {PLUIE} ; {SAISON} {HUMIDE} ; {MODELE} {MATHEMATIQUE} ; {FERTILISATION} {DU} {SOL} ; {SEMIS} ; {MILLET} ; {NIGER}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{I}nternational {J}ournal of {C}limatology},
  volume = {32},
  numero = {5},
  pages = {759--771},
  ISSN = {0899-8418},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1002/joc.2308},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060254},
}