@article{fdi:010058961,
  title = {{R}ainfall-runoff modeling of recent hydroclimatic change in-a subtropical lake catchment : {L}aguna {M}ar {C}hiquita, {A}rgentina},
  author = {{T}roin, {M}. and {V}allet-{C}oulomb, {C}. and {P}iovano, {E}. and {S}ylvestre, {F}lorence},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he 1970s abrupt lake level rise of {L}aguna {M}ar {C}hiquita in central {A}rgentina was shown to be driven by an increase in the {R}io {S}ali-{D}ulce discharge outflowing from the northern part of the lake catchment. {T}his regional hydrological change was consistent with the 20th century hydroclimatic trends observed in southeastern {S}outh {A}merica. {H}owever, little is known about the impacts of climate or land cover changes on this regional hydrological change causing the sharp lake level rise. {T}o address this question, the present study aims to provide an integrated basin-lake model. {W}e used the physically-based {SWAT} model in order to simulate streamflow in the {S}ali-{D}ulce {B}asin. {T}he ability of {SWAT} to simulate non-stationary hydrological conditions was evaluated by a cross-calibration exercise. {B}ased on observed daily meteorological data over 1973-2004, two successive 9-year periods referred to as wet ({P}1976-1985 = 1205 mm/yr) and dry ({P}1986-1995 = 796 mm/yr) periods were selected. {T}he calibration yielded similar {N}ash-{S}utcliffe efficiencies ({NSE}) at the monthly time scale for both periods ({NSE}wet = 0.86; {NSE}dry = 0.90) supporting the model's ability to adapt its structure to changing climatic situations. {T}he simulation was extended in scarce data conditions over 1931-1972 and the simulation of monthly discharge values was acceptable ({NSE} = 0.71). {W}hen precipitation in the model was increased until it reach the change observed in the 1970s ({D}elta {P}/({P}) over bar = 22%), the resulting increase in streamflow was found to closely match the 1970s hydrological change ({D}elta {Q}/({Q}) over bar = 45%). {S}ensitivity analyses revealed that the land cover changes had a minor impact on the 1970s hydrological changes in the {S}ali-{D}ulce {B}asin. {I}ntegrating the {SWAT} simulations within the lake model over 1973-2004 provided lake level variations similar to those obtained using observed discharge values. {O}ver the longer period, going back to 1931, the main features of lake levels were still adequately reproduced, which suggests that this basin-lake model is a promising approach for simulating long-term lake level fluctuations in response to climate.},
  keywords = {{SWAT} ; {P}arameter transferability ; {C}limate change ; {L}and cover change ; {L}ake ; level variations ; {S}outheastern {S}outh {A}merica ; {ARGENTINE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {475},
  numero = {},
  pages = {379--391},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.10.010},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010058961},
}