@article{fdi:010057110,
  title = {{M}ore extreme swings of the {S}outh {P}acific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming},
  author = {{C}ai, {W}. {J}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {B}orlace, {S}. and {C}ollins, {M}. and {C}owan, {T}. and {M}c{P}haden, {M}. {J}. and {T}immermann, {A}. and {P}ower, {S}. and {B}rown, {J}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {N}gari, {A}. and {V}incent, {E}. {M}. and {W}idlansky, {M}. {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {S}outh {P}acific convergence zone ({SPCZ}) is the {S}outhern {H}emisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western {P}acific {O}cean southeastward towards {F}rench {P}olynesia(1,2). {O}wing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the {SPCZ} causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events-such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones-experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region(1-7). {T}he {SPCZ} position varies from its climatological mean location with the {E}l {N}ino/{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}), moving a few degrees northward during moderate {E}l {N}ino events and southward during {L}a {N}ina events(2,5,6). {D}uring strong {E}l {N}ino events, however, the {SPCZ} undergoes an extreme swing-by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the {E}quator-and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure(5) with commensurately severe weather impacts(5,8-11). {U}nderstanding changes in the characteristics of the {SPCZ} in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. {H}ere we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal {SPCZ} events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how {ENSO} will change(12-14). {W}e estimate the increase in zonal {SPCZ} events from an aggregation of the climate models in the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject phases 3 and 5 ({CMIP}3(15) and {CMIP}5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. {T}he change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the {P}acific(16) and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the {P}acific island nations most affected by zonal {SPCZ} events.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature},
  volume = {488},
  numero = {7411},
  pages = {365--369 + 1 p.},
  ISSN = {0028-0836},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1038/nature11358},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010057110},
}