@article{fdi:010057009, title = {{E}nvironmental susceptibility model for predicting forest fire occurrence in the {W}estern {G}hats of {I}ndia}, author = {{R}enard, {Q}. and {P}{\'e}lissier, {R}apha{\¨e}l and {R}amesh, {B}. {R}. and {K}odandapani, {N}.}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{F}orest fires are a recurrent management problem in the {W}estern {G}hats of {I}ndia. {A}lthough most fires occur during the dry season, information on the spatial distribution of fires is needed to improve fire prevention. {W}e used the {MODIS} {H}otspots database and {M}axent algorithm to provide a quantitative understanding of the environmental controls regulating the spatial distribution of forest fires over the period 2003-07 in the entire {W}estern {G}hats and in two nested subregions with contrasting characteristics. {W}e used hierarchical partitioning to assess the independent contributions of climate, topography and vegetation to the goodness-of-fit of models and to build the most parsimonious fire susceptibility model in each study area. {R}esults show that although areas predicted as highly prone to forest fires were mainly localised on the eastern slopes of the {G}hats, spatial predictions and model accuracies differed significantly between study areas. {W}e suggest accordingly a two-step approach to identify: first, large fire-prone areas by paying special attention to the climatic conditions of the monsoon season before the fire season, which determine the fuels moisture content during the fire season; second, the most vulnerable sites within the fire-prone areas using local models mainly based on the type of vegetation.}, keywords = {environmental controls ; fire susceptibility model ; {M}axent ; {MODIS} ; nested study areas}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{I}nternational {J}ournal of {W}ildland {F}ire}, volume = {21}, numero = {4}, pages = {368--379}, ISSN = {1049-8001}, year = {2012}, DOI = {10.1071/wf10109}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010057009}, }