@article{fdi:010055905,
  title = {{S}trengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity},
  author = {{T}isseuil, {C}l{\'e}ment and {V}rac, {M}. and {G}renouillet, {G}. and {W}ade, {A}. {J}. and {G}evrey, {M}. and {O}berdorff, {T}hierry and {G}rodwohl, {J}. {B}. and {L}ek, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}o understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. {T}his study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. {T}he novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. {T}he proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major {E}uropean system, the {A}dour-{G}aronne river basin ({SW} {F}rance, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the {P}yrenees to the {A}tlantic coast. {T}he simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 degrees {C}, on average. {A}s consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. {T}he limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.},
  keywords = {{G}lobal change ; {S}tream fish ; {N}iche-based model ; {D}ownscaling ; {H}ydrology ; {C}limate},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cience of the {T}otal {E}nvironment},
  volume = {424},
  numero = {},
  pages = {193--201},
  ISSN = {0048-9697},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.035},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010055905},
}