@article{fdi:010055732,
  title = {{S}imulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large {S}udano-{S}ahelian catchment under climate change},
  author = {{R}uelland, {D}. and {A}rdoin {B}ardin, {S}andra and {C}ollet, {L}. and {R}oucou, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large {S}udano-{S}ahelian catchment in {W}est {A}frica. {F}low simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. {A} period of nearly 50 years (1952-2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. {C}alibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. {T}he climate models {H}ad{CM}3 and {MPI}-{M} under {SRES}-{A}2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. {O}utputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to: (i) the unbias and delta methods application and (ii) spatial and temporal downscaling. {A} temperature-based formula was used to calculate present and future potential evapotranspiration ({PET}). {T}he daily rainfall and {PET} series were introduced into the calibrated and validated hydrological model to simulate future discharge. {T}he model correctly reproduces the observed discharge at the basin outlet. {T}he {N}ash-{S}utcliffe efficiency criterion is over 89% for both calibration and validation periods, and the volume error between simulation and observation is close to null for the overall considered period. {W}ith regard to future climate, the results show clear trends of reduced rainfall over the catchment. {T}his rainfall deficit, together with a continuing increase in potential evapotranspiration, suggests that runoff from the basin could be substantially reduced, especially in the long term (60-65%), compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. {A}s a result, the long-term hydrological simulations show that the catchment discharge could decrease to the same levels as those observed during the severe drought of the 1980s.},
  keywords = {{H}ydro-climatic variability ; {C}limatic scenarios ; {H}ydrological modeling ; {R}iver {B}ani ; {W}est {A}frica},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {424},
  numero = {},
  pages = {207--216},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.01.002},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010055732},
}