@article{fdi:010054338,
  title = {{C}omparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales},
  author = {{M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {M}archesiello, {P}atrick and {J}ourdain, {N}.{C}. and {V}incent, {E}.{M}. and {L}ef{\`e}vre, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {C}hauvin, {F}. and {R}oyer, {J}. {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979-2001. {T}hese indices are: the {G}enesis {P}otential {I}ndex; the {Y}early {G}enesis {P}arameter; the {M}odified {Y}early {C}onvective {G}enesis {P}otential {I}ndex; and the {T}ippett et al. {I}ndex ({J} {C}lim, 2011), hereafter referred to as {TCS}. {C}hoosing {ERA}40, {NCEP}2, {NCEP} or {JRA}25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. {B}y contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. {A}ll indices except the {TCS} show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5{A} degrees. {M}ean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to +/- 50%. {F}or the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. {A}t the seasonal scale, the {TCS} seems to be the best fitted index overall. {T}he most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. {T}he indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to {E}l {N}io/{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO})-a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. {I}n terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. {T}hey do, however, show a very good coherence at {ENSO} scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by the use of any index. {F}inally, part of the gap between the observed and simulated cyclogenesis amplitudes may be attributable to stochastic processes, which cannot be inferred from environmental indices that only represent a potential for cyclogenesis.},
  keywords = {{C}yclogenesis indices ; {A}tmospheric reanalyses ; {ENSO} ; {C}yclone stochasticity ; {AUSTRALIE} ; {PACIFIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {38},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {301--321},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-011-1126-x},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010054338},
}