@article{fdi:010054297,
  title = {{I}nterseismic coupling and seismic potential along the {C}entral {A}ndes subduction zone},
  author = {{C}hlieh, {M}ohamed and {P}erfettini, {H}ugo and {T}avera, {H}. and {A}vouac, {J}.{P}. and {R}{\'e}my, {D}ominique and {N}ocquet, {J}.{M}. and {R}olandone, {F}. and {B}ondoux, {F}rancis and {G}abalda, {G}erminal and {B}onvalot, {S}ylvain},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}e use about two decades of geodetic measurements to characterize interseismic strain build up along the {C}entral {A}ndes subduction zone from {L}ima, {P}eru, to {A}ntofagasta, {C}hile. {T}hese measurements are modeled assuming a 3-plate model ({N}azca, {A}ndean sliver and {S}outh {A}merica {C}raton) and spatially varying interseismic coupling ({ISC}) on the {N}azca megathrust interface. {W}e also determine slip models of the 1996 {M}(w) = 7.7 {N}azca, the 2001 {M}(w) = 8.4 {A}requipa, the 2007 {M}(w) = 8.0 {P}isco and the {M}(w) = 7.7 {T}ocopilla earthquakes. {W}e find that the data require a highly heterogeneous {ISC} pattern and that, overall, areas with large seismic slip coincide with areas which remain locked in the interseismic period (with high {ISC}). {O}ffshore {L}ima where the {ISC} is high, a {M}(w) similar to 8.6-8.8 earthquake occurred in 1746. {T}his area ruptured again in a sequence of four {M}(w) similar to 8.0 earthquakes in 1940, 1966, 1974 and 2007 but these events released only a small fraction of the elastic strain which has built up since 1746 so that enough elastic strain might be available there to generate a {M}(w) > 8.5 earthquake. {T}he region where the {N}azca ridge subducts appears to be mostly creeping aseismically in the interseismic period (low {ISC}) and seems to act as a permanent barrier as no large earthquake ruptured through it in the last 500 years. {I}n southern {P}eru, {ISC} is relatively high and the deficit of moment accumulated since the {M}(w) similar to 8.8 earthquake of 1868 is equivalent to a magnitude {M}(w) similar to 8.4 earthquake. {T}wo asperities separated by a subtle aseismic creeping patch are revealed there. {T}his aseismic patch may arrest some rupture as happened during the 2001 {A}requipa earthquake, but the larger earthquakes of 1604 and 1868 were able to rupture through it. {I}n northern {C}hile, {ISC} is very high and the rupture of the 2007 {T}ocopilla earthquake has released only 4% of the elastic strain that has accumulated since 1877. {T}he deficit of moment which has accumulated there is equivalent to a magnitude {M}(w) similar to 8.7 earthquake. {T}his study thus provides elements to assess the location, size and magnitude of future large megathurst earthquakes in the {C}entral {A}ndes subduction zone. {C}aveats of this study are that interseismic strain of the forearc is assumed time invariant and entirely elastic. {A}lso a major source of uncertainty is due to fact that the available data place very little constraints on interseismic coupling at shallow depth near the trench, except offshore {L}ima where sea bottom geodetic measurements have been collected suggesting strong coupling.},
  keywords = {{CHILI} ; {PEROU} ; {ANDES}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch : {S}olid {E}arth},
  volume = {116},
  numero = {},
  pages = {{B}12405},
  ISSN = {0148-0227},
  year = {2011},
  DOI = {10.1029/2010jb008166},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010054297},
}