@article{fdi:010054164,
title = {{S}hort term forecasting of explosions at {U}binas volcano, {P}eru},
author = {{T}raversa, {P}. and {L}engline, {O}. and {M}acedo, {O}. and {M}{\'e}taxian, {J}ean-{P}hilippe and {G}rasso, {J}. {R}. and {I}nza, {A}. and {T}aipe, {E}.},
editor = {},
language = {{ENG}},
abstract = {{M}ost seismic eruption forerunners are described using {V}olcano-{T}ectonic earthquakes, seismic energy release, deformation rates or seismic noise analyses. {U}sing the seismic data recorded at {U}binas volcano ({P}eru) between 2006 and 2008, we explore the time evolution of the {L}ong {P}eriod ({LP}) seismicity rate prior to 143 explosions. {W}e resolve an average acceleration of the {LP} rate above the background level during the 2-3 hours preceding the explosion onset. {S}uch an average pattern, which emerges when stacking over {LP} time series, is robust and stable over all the 2006-2008 period, for which data is available. {T}his accelerating pattern is also recovered when conditioning the {LP} rate on the occurrence of an other {LP} event, rather than on the explosion time. {I}t supports a common mechanism for the generation of explosions and {LP} events, the magma conduit pressure increase being the most probable candidate. {T}he average {LP} rate acceleration toward an explosion is highly significant prior to the higher energy explosions, supposedly the ones associated with the larger pressure increases. {T}he dramatic decay of the {LP} activity following explosions, still reinforce the strong relationship between these two processes. {W}e test and we quantify the retrospective forecasting power of these {LP} rate patterns to predict {U}binas explosions. {T}he prediction quality of the forecasts (e.g. for 17% of alarm time, we predict 63% of {U}binas explosions, with 58% of false alarms) is evaluated using error diagrams. {T}he prediction results are stable and the prediction algorithm validated, i.e. its performance is better than the random guess.},
keywords = {{PEROU} ; {ANDES} ; {UBINAS} {VOLCAN}},
booktitle = {},
journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch. {S}olid {E}arth},
volume = {116},
numero = {},
pages = {{B}11301},
ISSN = {0148-0227},
year = {2011},
DOI = {10.1029/2010jb008180},
URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010054164},
}