%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Favier, C.
%A Dégallier, Nicolas
%A Menkès, Christophe
%T Analytical models approximating individual processes : a validation method
%D 2010
%L fdi:010052991
%G ENG
%J Mathematical Biosciences
%@ 0025-5564
%K Model upscaling ; Individual-based models ; Population-level models ; Statistical tests ; Epidemic models ; Cyclically feeding vectors
%M ISI:000285369500002
%N 2
%P 127-135
%R 10.1016/j.mbs.2010.08.014
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010052991
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2011/01/010052991.pdf
%V 228
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models.
%$ 020 ; 052 ; 122