@article{fdi:010052874,
  title = {{A}n age-structured model for the potential impact of generalized access to antiretrovirals on the {S}outh {A}frican {HIV} epidemic},
  author = {{B}aca{\¨e}r, {N}icolas and {P}retorius, {C}. and {A}uvert, {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A} simple mathematical model ({G}ranich et al., {L}ancet 373:48-57, 2009) suggested recently that annual {HIV} testing of the population, with all detected {HIV}+ individuals immediately treated with antiretrovirals, could lead to the long-term decline of {HIV} in {S}outh {A}frica and could save millions of lives in the next few years. {H}owever, the model suggested that the long-term decline of {HIV} could not be achieved with less frequent {HIV} testing. {M}any observers argued that an annual testing rate was very difficult in practice. {S}mall scale trials are nevertheless in preparation. {I}n this paper, we use a more realistic age-structured model, which suggests that the recent high levels of reported condom use could already lead to a long-term decline of {HIV} in {S}outh {A}frica. {T}he model therefore suggests that trials with for example 20% of the population tested each year would also be interesting. {T}hey would have similar (though smaller) advantages in terms of reduction of mortality and incidence, would be much easier to generalize to larger populations, and would not lead to long term persistence of {HIV}. {O}ur model simulations also suggest that the age distribution of incidence has changed considerably over the past 20 years in {S}outh {A}frica. {T}his raises some concern about an assumption presently used in {EPP}/{S}pectrum, the software used by {UNAIDS} for its estimates.},
  keywords = {{HIV} ; {A}ntiretrovirals ; {M}athematical model ; {A}ge structure},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of {M}athematical {B}iology},
  volume = {72},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {2180--2198},
  ISSN = {0092-8240},
  year = {2010},
  DOI = {10.1007/s11538-010-9535-2},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010052874},
}