@article{fdi:010049638, title = {{T}he vegetation cycle in {W}est {A}frica from {AVHRR}-{NDVI} data : horizons of predictability versus spatial scales}, author = {{M}angiarotti, {S}ylvain and {M}azzega, {P}. and {H}iernaux, {P}. and {M}ougin, {E}ric}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{T}he predictability of the vegetation cycle is analyzed as a function of the spatial scale over {W}est {A}frica during the period 1982-2004 {T}he {NDVI}-{AVHRR} satellite data time series are spatially aggregated over windows covering a range of sizes from 8 x 8 km(2) to 1024 x 1024 km(2). {T}he times series are then embedded in a low-dimensional pseudo-phase space using a system of time delayed coordinates. {T}he correlation dimension ({D}-c) and entropy of the underlying vegetation dynamics, as well as the noise level (sigma) are extracted from a nonlinear analysis of the time series {T}he horizon of predictability ({H}-{P}) of the vegetation cycle defined as the time interval required for an n% {RMS} error on the vegetation state to double (i e reach 2n% {RMS}) is estimated from the entropy production. {C}ompared to full resolution, the intermediate scales of aggregation (in the range of 64 x 64 km(2) to 256 x 256 km(2)) provide times series with a slightly improved signal to noise ratio, longer horizon of predictability (about 2 to 5 decades) and preserve the most salient spatial patterns of the vegetation cycle {I}nsights on the best aggregation scale and on the expected vegetation cycle predictability over {W}est {A}frica are provided by a set of maps of the correlation dimension ({D}-c), the horizon of predictability ({H}-{P}) and the level of noise (sigma).}, keywords = {{V}egetation cycle ; {W}est {A}frica ; {H}orizon of predictability ; {S}patial scale ; {NDVI} satellite data ; {N}onlinear data analysis}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{R}emote {S}ensing of {E}nvironment}, volume = {114}, numero = {9}, pages = {2036--2047}, ISSN = {0034-4257}, year = {2010}, DOI = {10.1016/j.rse.2010.04.010}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010049638}, }