Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico : lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century

Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico : lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century Gratiot Nicolas auteur aut IRD Duvert C. auteur aut IRD Collet L. auteur aut IRD Vinson D. auteur aut IRD Nemery Julien auteur aut IRD Saenz-Romero C. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access The hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed (Mexico) is analysed over half a century. The hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970's. This increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains) remains statistically stable over the same period. As a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. The paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature should accentuate the trend engaged since the 1970's by reducing groundwater resources and increasing surface-runoff and associated risks. specialized MEXIQUE 062 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14 2 291-300 2010 1027-5606 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010049375 10.5194/hess-14-291-2010 1027-5606 [F B010049375] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010049375 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers17-09/010049375.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2010-04-06 2023-03-20 fdi:010049375 fre