@article{fdi:010049375, title = {{I}ncrease in surface runoff in the central mountains of {M}exico : lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century}, author = {{G}ratiot, {N}icolas and {D}uvert, {C}. and {C}ollet, {L}. and {V}inson, {D}. and {N}emery, {J}ulien and {S}aenz-{R}omero, {C}.}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{T}he hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed ({M}exico) is analysed over half a century. {T}he hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970's. {T}his increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains) remains statistically stable over the same period. {A}s a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. {T}he paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. {T}he decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature should accentuate the trend engaged since the 1970's by reducing groundwater resources and increasing surface-runoff and associated risks.}, keywords = {{MEXIQUE}}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{H}ydrology and {E}arth {S}ystem {S}ciences}, volume = {14}, numero = {2}, pages = {291--300}, ISSN = {1027-5606}, year = {2010}, DOI = {10.5194/hess-14-291-2010}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010049375}, }