@article{fdi:010048312,
  title = {{R}isk of malaria reemergence in {S}outhern {F}rance : testing scenarios with a multiagent simulation model},
  author = {{L}inard, {C}. and {P}on{\c{c}}on, {N}icolas and {F}ontenille, {D}idier and {L}ambin, {E}. {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {C}amargue, a region in southern {F}rance, is considered a potential site for malaria reemergence. {A}ll the suitable factors of the disease transmission system are present-competent mosquito vectors, habitats for their breeding, and susceptible people-except for the parasite. {T}he objective of this study was to test potential drivers of malaria reemergence in this system after possible changes in biological attributes of vectors, agricultural practices, land use, tourism activities, and climate. {S}cenarios of plausible futures were formulated and then simulated using a spatially explicit and dynamic multiagent simulation: the {MALCAM} model. {S}cenarios were developed by varying the value of model inputs. {M}odel outputs were compared based on the contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, and the number of new infections in case of reintroduction of the parasite in the region. {M}odel simulations showed that the risk of malaria reemergence is low in the {C}amargue. {I}f the disease would reemerge, it would be the result of a combination of unfavorable conditions: introduction of a large population of infectious people or mosquitoes, combined with high levels of people-vector contacts resulting from significant changes in land use, tourism activities, agricultural policies, biological evolution of mosquitoes, and climate changes. {T}he representation in the {MALCAM} model of interactions and feedbacks between different agents, and between agents and their environment, led in some cases to counterintuitive results. {R}esults from scenario analyses can help local public health authorities in policy formulation.},
  keywords = {malaria ; scenario ; {C}amargue ; multiagent simulation ; disease emergence ; land use},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}co{H}ealth},
  volume = {6},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {135--147},
  ISSN = {1612-9202},
  year = {2009},
  DOI = {10.1007/s10393-009-0236-y},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010048312},
}