Lhomme Jean-Paul auteur aut IRD Mougou R. auteur aut IRD Mansour M. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access The potential effect of climate change on durum wheat in Tunisia is assessed using a simple crop simulation model and a climate projection for the 2071-2100 period, obtained from the M,t,o-France ARPEGE-Climate atmospheric model run under the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) scenario A1B. In the process-oriented crop model, phenology is estimated through thermal time. Water balance is calculated on a daily basis by means of a simple modelling of actual evapotranspiration involving reference evapotranspiration, crop coefficients and some basic soil characteristics. The impact of crop water deficit on yield is accounted for through the linear crop-water production function developed by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). Two stations are chosen to study the climate change effect. They are representative of the main areas where cereals are grown in Tunisia: Jendouba in the northern region and Kairouan in the central region. In the future scenario, temperature systematically increases, whereas precipitation increases or decreases depending on the location and the period of the year. Mean annual precipitation declines in Jendouba and raises in Kairouan. Under climate change, the water conditions needed for sowing occur earlier and cycle lengths are reduced in both locations. Crop water deficit and the corresponding deficit in crop yield happen to be slightly lower in Kairouan; conversely, they become higher in Jendouba. specialized 072 021 96 4 549-564 2009 0165-0009 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010048214 10.1007/s10584-009-9571-9 0165-0009 [F B010048214] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010048214 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2009/10/010048214.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2009-11-09 2017-08-23 fdi:010048214 fre