Fréon Pierre auteur aut IRD Bouchon M. auteur aut IRD Mullon Christian auteur aut IRD Garcia C. auteur aut IRD Niquen M. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Paleontological and historical stock abundance estimates indicate that pelagic fish populations inhabiting upwelling ecosystems undergo large interdecadal variations in abundance with amplitudes equal to, if not larger than, the interannual variability. The interdecadal variability is characterized by periods of high and low abundance, termed "pseudo-cycles", because of their irregular periodicity. Fisheries targeting small pelagic fish suffer from overall overcapitalization, like many other fisheries, but also from an additional overcapitalization problem: a phase displacement between rapid fish population decreases and a slower disinvestment which follows. This lag produces economic hardship. Here we document the fish:fishery relationship for the Peruvian anchoveta. Anchoveta pseudo-cycles of 20 to >100 years are observed, with the present stock abundance most likely located near upper part of the cycle. Fleet overcapacity expressed as the proportion of unused present capacity is estimated at 72% and processing overcapacity at 89%. A simple bio-economic model demonstrates the risks associated with the pseudo-periodicity in fish stock abundance in conjunction with fishery investment, open access, and overcapacity: a timing bomb for the fishing sector. The lag between disinvestment and decrease in fish abundance is quantified. A reduction of the fishing and processing capacity and measures to decrease the investment lag are recommended to limit the social, economical and political tensions that will result from the expected decrease in stock abundance. Finally, some management options to reduce these risks are discussed specialized POISSON MARIN ESPECE PELAGIQUE EFFORT DE PECHE STOCK SUREXPLOITATION VARIATION TEMPORELLE GESTION DES PECHES IMPACT SUR L'ENVIRONNEMENT PEROU 040PECHE03 Werner F. ed. edt IRD Lough R.G. ed. edt IRD Bertrand Arnaud ed. edt IRD Guevara Carrasco R. ed. edt IRD Soler Pierre ed. edt IRD Csirke J. ed. edt IRD Chavez F.P. ed. edt IRD 79 2-4 401-412 2008 0079-6611 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010045099 10.1016/j.pocean.2008.10.011 0079-6611 [F A010045082] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010045099 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/2021-05/010045099.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2009-01-19 2021-05-19 fdi:010045099 fre