@article{fdi:010045099,
  title = {{I}nterdecadal variability of anchoveta abundance and overcapacity of the fishery in {P}eru},
  author = {{F}r{\'e}on, {P}ierre and {B}ouchon, {M}. and {M}ullon, {C}hristian and {G}arcia, {C}. and {N}iquen, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}aleontological and historical stock abundance estimates indicate that pelagic fish populations inhabiting upwelling ecosystems undergo large interdecadal variations in abundance with amplitudes equal to, if not larger than, the interannual variability. {T}he interdecadal variability is characterized by periods of high and low abundance, termed "pseudo-cycles", because of their irregular periodicity. {F}isheries targeting small pelagic fish suffer from overall overcapitalization, like many other fisheries, but also from an additional overcapitalization problem: a phase displacement between rapid fish population decreases and a slower disinvestment which follows. {T}his lag produces economic hardship. {H}ere we document the fish:fishery relationship for the {P}eruvian anchoveta. {A}nchoveta pseudo-cycles of 20 to >100 years are observed, with the present stock abundance most likely located near upper part of the cycle. {F}leet overcapacity expressed as the proportion of unused present capacity is estimated at 72% and processing overcapacity at 89%. {A} simple bio-economic model demonstrates the risks associated with the pseudo-periodicity in fish stock abundance in conjunction with fishery investment, open access, and overcapacity: a timing bomb for the fishing sector. {T}he lag between disinvestment and decrease in fish abundance is quantified. {A} reduction of the fishing and processing capacity and measures to decrease the investment lag are recommended to limit the social, economical and political tensions that will result from the expected decrease in stock abundance. {F}inally, some management options to reduce these risks are discussed},
  keywords = {{POISSON} {MARIN} ; {ESPECE} {PELAGIQUE} ; {EFFORT} {DE} {PECHE} ; {STOCK} ; {SUREXPLOITATION} ; {VARIATION} {TEMPORELLE} ; {GESTION} {DES} {PECHES} ; {IMPACT} {SUR} {L}'{ENVIRONNEMENT} ; {PEROU} ; {HUMBOLDT} {COURANT}},
  booktitle = {{T}he northern {H}umboldt current system : ocean dynamics, ecosystem processes and fisheries},
  journal = {{P}rogress in {O}ceanography},
  volume = {79},
  numero = {2-4},
  pages = {401--412},
  ISSN = {0079-6611},
  year = {2008},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.pocean.2008.10.011},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010045099},
}