Zhang Z. B. auteur aut IRD Cazelles Bernard auteur aut IRD Tian H. D. auteur aut IRD Stige L. C. auteur aut IRD Brauning A. auteur aut IRD Stenseth N. C. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957-1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160-170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160-170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects. specialized Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) global warming droughts floods disaster temperature-associated climate 080 276 1658 823-831 2009 0962-8452 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010044267 10.1098/rspb.2008.1284 0962-8452 [F B010044267] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010044267 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2009/02/010044267.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2009-03-06 2017-08-23 fdi:010044267 fre