@article{fdi:010044267,
  title = {{P}eriodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in {C}hina},
  author = {{Z}hang, {Z}. {B}. and {C}azelles, {B}ernard and {T}ian, {H}. {D}. and {S}tige, {L}. {C}. and {B}rauning, {A}. and {S}tenseth, {N}. {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{G}lobal warming is currently of great concern. {Y}et the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. {R}ecent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the {O}riental migratory locust ({L}ocusta migratoria manilensis) in {C}hina have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with {Y}angtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium ({AD} 957-1956). {I}n order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient {C}hina, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. {W}e find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160-170 years. {S}imilar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the {Y}angtze {D}elta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. {W}e suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160-170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in {C}hina through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. {O}ur results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects.},
  keywords = {{O}riental migratory locust ({L}ocusta migratoria manilensis) ; global ; warming ; droughts ; floods ; disaster ; temperature-associated climate},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {R}oyal {S}ociety {B} - {B}iological {S}ciences},
  volume = {276},
  numero = {1658},
  pages = {823--831},
  ISSN = {0962-8452},
  year = {2009},
  DOI = {10.1098/rspb.2008.1284},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010044267},
}