@article{fdi:010042773,
  title = {{A} quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases : malaria re-emergence in southern {F}rance - art. no. 147},
  author = {{P}on{\c{c}}on, {N}icolas and {T}ran, {A}. and {T}oty, {C}{\'e}line and {L}uty, {A}. {J}. {F}. and {F}ontenille, {D}idier},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {T}he {C}amargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential {A}nopheles vectors are still abundant. {C}onsidering the importation of {P}lasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in {F}rance, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the {C}amargue. {M}ethods: {R}eceptivity (vectorial capacity) and infectivity (vector susceptibility) were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both {P}lasmodium falciparum and {P}lasmodium vivax. {E}ach parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle) and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. {S}patial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. {T}he entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity) was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. {T}he result was mapped in the {C}amargue area. {F}inally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases) was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. {R}esults: {T}he entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and {P}lasmodium species-dependent variations. {T}he sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. {A}ssessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. {C}onclusion: {T}he current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported {P}lasmodium. {T}his model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk assessment.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{M}alaria {J}ournal},
  volume = {7},
  numero = {147},
  pages = {1},
  ISSN = {1475-2875},
  year = {2008},
  DOI = {10.1186/1475-2875-7-147},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010042773},
}