@article{fdi:010042467,
  title = {{C}omparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change},
  author = {{P}ontius, {R}. {G}. and {B}oersma, {W}. and {C}astella, {J}ean-{C}hristophe and {C}larke, {K}. and de {N}ijs, {T}. and {D}ietzel, {C}. and {D}uan, {Z}. and {F}otsing, {E}. and {G}oldstein, {N}. and {K}ok, {K}. and {K}oomen, {E}. and {L}ippitt, {C}. {D}. and {M}c{C}onnell, {W}. and {S}ood, {A}. {M}. and {P}ijanowski, {B}. and {P}ithadia, {S}. and {S}weeney, {S}. and {T}rung, {T}. {N}. and {V}eldkamp, {A}. {T}. and {V}erburg, {P}. {H}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his paper applies methods of multiple resolution map comparison to quantify characteristics for 13 applications of 9 different popular peer-reviewed land change models. {E}ach modeling application simulates change of land categories in raster maps from an initial time to a subsequent time. {F}or each modeling application, the statistical methods compare: (1) a reference map of the initial time, (2) a reference map of the subsequent time, and (3) a prediction map of the subsequent time. {T}he three possible two-map comparisons for each application characterize: (1) the dynamics of the landscape, (2) the behavior of the model, and (3) the accuracy of the prediction. {T}he three-map comparison for each application specifies the amount of the prediction's accuracy that is attributable to land persistence versus land change. {R}esults show that the amount of error is larger than the amount of correctly predicted change for 12 of the 13 applications at the resolution of the raw data. {T}he applications are summarized and compared using two statistics: the null resolution and the figure of merit. {A}ccording to the figure of merit, the more accurate applications are the ones where the amount of observed net change in the reference maps is larger. {T}his paper facilitates communication among land change modelers, because it illustrates the range of results for a variety of models using scientifically rigorous, generally applicable, and intellectually accessible statistical techniques.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}nnals of {R}egional {S}cience},
  volume = {42},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {11--37},
  ISSN = {0570-1864},
  year = {2008},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010042467},
}