@article{fdi:010041543,
  title = {{T}he dynamics of collapse in world fisheries},
  author = {{M}ullon, {C}hristian and {F}r{\'e}on, {P}ierre and {C}ury, {P}hilippe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he fear of a rapid depletion of world fish stocks because of over-exploitation is increasing. {A}nalysis of 1519 main series of the {FAO} world fisheries catch database over the last 50 years reveals that 366 fisheries' collapses occurred, that is nearly one fishery of four. {T}he robustness of this result is tested by performing several complementary analyses using different conservative options. {T}he number of collapses has been stable through time since 1950s indicating no improvement in the overall fisheries management. {T}hree typical patterns emerge from the analysis of catch series during the period preceding the collapses: smooth collapse (33%), i.e. a long regular decline, erratic collapse (45%), i.e. a fall after several ups and downs, and a plateau-shaped collapse (21%), i.e. a sudden fall after a relatively long and stable persistence of high level of catches. {U}sing a simple mathematical model, we relate the plateau-shaped collapses (which are, by nature, the most difficult to predict) to surreptitiously increasing exploitation and a depensatory mechanism at low population levels. {T}hus, a stable level of catch over several years is shown to conceal the risk of a sudden collapse. {T}his jeopardizes the common assumption that considers the stability of catch as a goal for fisheries sustainability.},
  keywords = {catch ; depensation ; fishing efficiency ; fishing effort ; overexploitation ; production models ; stock assessment},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}ish and {F}isheries},
  volume = {6},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {111--120},
  ISSN = {1467-2960},
  year = {2005},
  DOI = {10.1111/j.1467-2979.2005.00181.x},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010041543},
}