@article{fdi:010040806,
  title = {{S}tatistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region {L}ower {R}hine {E}mbayment},
  author = {{F}aenza, {L}. and {H}ainzl, {S}. and {S}cherbaum, {F}. and {B}eauval, {C}{\'e}line},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. {I}n this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. {W}e include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via {M}onte {C}arlo simulations. {O}ur target region is the {L}ower {R}hine {E}mbayment, a low seismicity area in {G}ermany. {I}ncluding aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence ({ETAS}) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5-10 per cent. {F}urthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. {W}e also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. {W}e found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.},
  keywords = {long and short time earthquake behaviour ; low seismicity regions ; {M}onte {C}arlo simulations ; probabilistic hazard analysis ; statistical analysis},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {J}ournal {I}nternational},
  volume = {171},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {797--806},
  ISSN = {0956-540{X}},
  year = {2007},
  DOI = {10.1111/j.1365-246{X}.2007.03564.x},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010040806},
}