@article{fdi:010026110,
  title = {{M}eningitis seasonal pattern in {A}frica and detection of epidemics : a retrospective study in {N}iger, 1990-98},
  author = {{C}habalier, {F}. de and {D}jingarey, {M}.{H}. and {H}assane, {A}. and {C}hippaux, {J}ean-{P}hilippe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}ontrol of epidemic meningitis is still an unresolved problem in {A}frica. {WHO} has promoted the use of surveillance and response following alerts based on weekly threshold levels. {I}n order to avoid any waste of resources related to false-positive alerts, it was decided not to choose too sensitive thresholds. {T}his policy, however, leads to delayed response. {T}he seasonal pattern of epidemics provides a solution to this dilemma. {W}e carried out a retrospective survey of district-level surveillance data in {N}iger from {J}une 1990 to {J}une 1998. {W}e identified an early and late meningitis season. {F}ollowing this pattern, we studied the performance of the {WHO}-recommended threshold as compared to alternative thresholds for identifying early, late and non-epidemic district-years ({DY}s). ({A} {DY} was defined as a 52-week period starting in the last week of {J}une, at the district level). {W}e studied 296 {DY}s, comprising 50 early epidemic, 38 late epidemic, and 208 non-epidemic {DY}s. {E}arly epidemics were more often large and accounted for almost 75% of total cases. {W}hen applied no later than the first week of {M}arch, a highly sensitive alternative threshold resulted in initiation of an alert, with a median of 3 weeks earlier than the standard threshold, with no false-positive alerts, i.e., a specificity of 1. ({R}{\'e}sum{\'e} d'auteur)},
  keywords = {{EPIDEMIE} ; {SURVEILLANCE} {EPIDEMIOLOGIQUE} ; {INCIDENCE} ; {EVALUATION} ; {ANALYSE} {STATISTIQUE} ; {VARIATION} {SAISONNIERE} ; {ETUDE} {COMPARATIVE} ; {MENINGITE} ; {MODELE} {DE} {PREVISION} ; {NIGER}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{T}ransactions of the {R}oyal {S}ociety of {T}ropical {M}edicine and {H}ygiene},
  volume = {94},
  numero = {},
  pages = {664--668},
  ISSN = {0035-9203},
  year = {2000},
  DOI = {10.1016/{S}0035-9203(00)90224-4},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010026110},
}