@article{fdi:010023711,
  title = {{M}odelling and forecasting the catch of the scads ({D}ecapterus macrosoma, {D}ecapterus russellii) in the {J}avanese purse seine fishery using {ARIMA} time series models},
  author = {{P}otier, {M}ichel and {D}rapeau, {L}aurent},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he standard of living of the purse seine fishers operating in the northern coast of the {J}ava {I}sland is closely related to scad resources. {S}cads landings of the semi-industrial purse-seine fishery were analyzed using {S}easonal {A}uto {R}egressive {I}ntegrated {M}oving {A}verage ({SARIMA}) techniques. {S}everal models were found to be suitable for describing the temporal fishery pattern and for forecasting the landings two years ahead. {F}orecasts were matched to actual data. {I}t appears that such models can describe and forecast the dynamics of the scads fishery in the {J}ava {S}ea. {U}ntil now, such results are difficult to predict owing to the strong influence of the year to year changes in the monsoon regime. {F}orecasting is more reliable with neritic species such as #{D}ecapterus russellii$, since their spatial distribution in the {J}ava {S}ea is relatively independent of the monsoon variability. {O}n the contrary, oceanic species such as #{D}ecapterus macrosoma$ are more difficult to forecast as their distribution is closely related to the environmental changes. {I}n that case, transfer function models including environmental parameters would be more appropriate. ({R}{\'e}sum{\'e} d'auteur)},
  keywords = {{PECHE} {MARITIME} ; {POISSON} {MARIN} ; {PECHE} {INDUSTRIELLE} ; {STOCK} ; {FLUCTUATION} ; {ABONDANCE} ; {SENNEUR} ; {FACTEUR} {ECOLOGIQUE} ; {PLUVIOMETRIE} ; {VENT} ; {VARIATION} {SAISONNIERE} ; {EXPLOITATION} {DES} {RESSOURCES} {NATURELLES} ; {MODELE} {MATHEMATIQUE} ; {ANALYSE} {DE} {REGRESSION} ; {MODELE} {ARIMA} ; {JAWA} ; {INDONESIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}sian {F}isheries {S}cience},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {},
  pages = {75--85},
  ISSN = {0116-6514},
  year = {2000},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010023711},
}