%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Moron, V.
%A Barbero, R.
%A Mangeas, Morgan
%A Borgniet, L.
%A Curt, T.
%A Berti-Equille, Laure
%T Prediction of september-december fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) using july Nino-4 sea surface temperature index
%D 2013
%L PAR00010315
%G ENG
%J Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
%@ 1558-8424
%K NOUVELLE CALEDONIE
%M ISI:000316466700007
%N 3
%P 623-633
%R 10.1175/jamc-d-12-03.1
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/PAR00010315
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2022-05/010084999.pdf
%V 52
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X An empirical statistical scheme for predicting September-December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000-10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Nino-4 box (5 degrees S-5 degrees N, 160 degrees-210 degrees E), which are closely related to austral spring (September-November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Noumea) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Nino-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central Pacific ENSO events.
%$ 032 ; 082