@article{PAR00010315,
  title = {{P}rediction of september-december fire in {N}ew {C}aledonia ({S}outhwestern {P}acific) using july {N}ino-4 sea surface temperature index},
  author = {{M}oron, {V}. and {B}arbero, {R}. and {M}angeas, {M}organ and {B}orgniet, {L}. and {C}urt, {T}. and {B}erti-{E}quille, {L}aure},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}n empirical statistical scheme for predicting {S}eptember-{D}ecember fires in {N}ew {C}aledonia in the southwestern {P}acific {O}cean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000-10 period. {T}he predictor employs {J}uly sea surface temperatures ({SST}) recorded over the {N}ino-4 box (5 degrees {S}-5 degrees {N}, 160 degrees-210 degrees {E}), which are closely related to austral spring ({S}eptember-{N}ovember) rainfall anomalies across {N}ew {C}aledonia. {T}he correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across {N}ew {C}aledonia is 0.87. {A} decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town ({N}oumea) and its suburbs in the southwest of {G}rande {T}erre, and also in northern {N}ew {C}aledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the {N}ino-4 {SST} index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) phenomenon. {I}t is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central {P}acific {ENSO} events.},
  keywords = {{NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {A}pplied {M}eteorology and {C}limatology},
  volume = {52},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {623--633},
  ISSN = {1558-8424},
  year = {2013},
  DOI = {10.1175/jamc-d-12-03.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00010315},
}