Moron V., Barbero R., Mangeas Morgan, Borgniet L., Curt T., Berti-Equille Laure. (2013). Prediction of september-december fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) using july Nino-4 sea surface temperature index. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 52 (3), p. 623-633. ISSN 1558-8424.
Titre du document
Prediction of september-december fire in New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) using july Nino-4 sea surface temperature index
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2013,
52 (3), p. 623-633 ISSN 1558-8424
An empirical statistical scheme for predicting September-December fires in New Caledonia in the southwestern Pacific Ocean region using a cross-validated generalized linear model has been developed for the 2000-10 period. The predictor employs July sea surface temperatures (SST) recorded over the Nino-4 box (5 degrees S-5 degrees N, 160 degrees-210 degrees E), which are closely related to austral spring (September-November) rainfall anomalies across New Caledonia. The correlation between the logarithm of observed and simulated total burned areas across New Caledonia is 0.87. A decrease in the local-scale skill (median correlation between the log of observed and simulated total burned areas in a 20-km radius around a rain gauge = 0.46) around the main town (Noumea) and its suburbs in the southwest of Grande Terre, and also in northern New Caledonia, could be associated either with a weaker climatic forcing from the Nino-4 SST index or a small-scale climatic forcing not linearly related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. It is more likely that the decrease is tied to the influence of human-driven factors that blur the regional-scale climatic signal mostly associated with central Pacific ENSO events.
Plan de classement
Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032]
;
Etudes, transformation, conservation du milieu naturel [082]
