@article{PAR00009534,
  title = {{C}hanging spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental {USA}},
  author = {{C}hoisy, {M}arc and {R}ohani, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}rediction and control of the geographical spread of emerging pathogens has become a central public health issue. {B}ecause these infectious diseases are by definition novel, there are few data to characterize their dynamics. {O}ne possible solution to this problem is to apply lessons learnt from analyses of historical data on familiar and epidemiologically similar pathogens. {H}owever, the portability of the spatial ecology of an infectious disease in a different epoch to other infections remains unexamined. {H}ere, we study this issue by taking advantage of the recent re-emergence of pertussis in the {U}nited {S}tates to compare its spatial transmission dynamics throughout the 1950s with the past decade. {W}e report 4-year waves, sweeping across the continent in the 1950s. {T}hese waves are shown to emanate from highly synchronous foci in the northwest and northeast coasts. {I}n contrast, the recent resurgence of the disease is characterized by 5.5-year epidemics with no particular spatial structure. {W}e interpret this to be the result of dramatic changes in patterns of human movement over the second half of the last century, together with changing age distribution of pertussis. {W}e conclude that extrapolation regarding the spatial spread of contemporaneous pathogens based on analyses of historical incidence may be potentially very misleading.},
  keywords = {pertussis ; spatial dynamics ; infectious disease re-emergence},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {R}oyal {S}ociety {B}. {B}iological {S}ciences},
  volume = {279},
  numero = {1747},
  pages = {4574--4581},
  ISSN = {0962-8452},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1098/rspb.2012.1761},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00009534},
}