@article{PAR00008788,
  title = {{M}odeling potential equilibrium states of vegetation and terrestrial water cycle of {M}esoamerica under climate change scenarios},
  author = {{I}mbach, {P}. and {M}olina, {L}. and {L}ocatelli, {B}. and {R}oupsard, {O}. and {M}ah{\'e}, {G}il and {N}eilson, {R}. and {C}orrales, {L}. and {S}cholze, {M}. and {C}iais, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in {M}esoamerica is evaluated. {M}esoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. {T}he biogeographic soil-vegetation-atmosphere model {M}apped {A}tmosphere {P}lant {S}oil {S}ystem ({MAPSS}) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index ({LAI}), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. {U}ncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models ({GCM}s). {LAI} is likely to decrease over 77%-89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. {A}ccounting for potential effects of {CO}2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on {LAI}. {R}unoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. {H}igher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. {A}lthough the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty.},
  keywords = {},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrometeorology},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {665--680},
  ISSN = {1525-755{X}},
  year = {2012},
  DOI = {10.1175/jhm-d-11-023.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00008788},
}