@article{PAR00001679,
  title = {{P}redicted soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the {B}razilian {A}mazon between 2000 and 2030},
  author = {{C}erri, {C}. {E}. {P}. and {E}aster, {M}. and {P}austian, {K}. and {K}illian, {K}. and {C}oleman, {K}. and {B}ernoux, {M}artial and {F}alloon, {P}. and {P}owlson, {D}. {S}. and {B}atjes, {N}. {H}. and {M}ilne, {E}. and {C}erri, {C}. {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}urrently we have little understanding of the impacts of land use change on soil {C} stocks in the {B}razilian {A}mazon. {S}uch information is needed to determine impacts'6n the global {C} cycle and the sustainability of agricultural systems that are replacing native forest. {T}he aim of this study was to predict soil carbon stocks and changes in the {B}razilian {A}mazon during the period between 2000 and 2030, using the {GEFSOC} soil carbon ({C}) modelling system. {I}n order to do so, we devised current and future land use scenarios for the {B}razilian {A}mazon, taking into account: (i) deforestation, rates from the past three decades, (ii) census data on land use from 1940 to 2000, including the expansion and intensification of agriculture in the region, (iii) available information on management practices, primarily related to well managed pasture versus degraded pasture and conventional systems versus no-tillage systems for soybean ({G}lycine max) and (iv) {FAO} predictions on agricultural land use and land use changes for the years 2015 and 2030. {T}he land use scenarios were integrated with spatially explicit soils data ({SOTER} database), climate, potential natural vegetation and land management units using the recently developed {GEFSOC} soil {C} modelling system. {R}esults are presented in map, table and graph form for the entire {B}razilian {A}mazon for the current situation (1990 and 2000) and the future (2015 and 2030). {R}esults include soil organic {C} ({SOC}) stocks and {SOC} stock change rates estimated by three methods: (i) the {C}entury ecosystem model, (ii) the {R}othamsted {C} model and (iii) the intergovernmental panel on climate change ({IPCC}) method for assessing soil {C} at regional scale. {I}n addition, we show estimated values of above and belowground biomass for native vegetation, pasture and soybean. {T}he results on regional {SOC} stocks compare reasonably well with those based on mapping approaches. {T}he {GEFSOC} system provided a means of efficiently handling complex interactions among biotic-edapho-climatic conditions (> 363,000 combinations) in a very large area (similar to 500 {M}ha) such as the {B}razilian {A}mazon. {A}ll of the methods used showed a decline in {SOC} stock for the period studied; {C}entury and {R}oth{C} simulated values for 2030 being about 7% lower than those in 1990. {V}alues from {C}entury and {R}oth{C} (30,430 and 25,000 {T}g for the 0-20 cm layer for the {B}razilian {A}mazon region were higher than those obtained from the {IPCC} system (23,400 {T}g in the 0-30 cm layer). {F}inally; our results can help understand the major biogeochemical cycles that influence soil fertility and help devise management strategies that enhance the sustainability of these areas and thus slow further deforestation.},
  keywords = {soil organic carbon ; regional estimates ; land use change ; {B}razilian {A}mazon},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}griculture {E}cosystems and {E}nvironment},
  volume = {122},
  numero = {1 {S}pecial {I}ss.},
  pages = {58--72},
  ISSN = {0167-8809},
  year = {2007},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.agee.2007.01.008},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/{PAR}00001679},
}