@article{fdi:010088392,
  title = {{S}tructures elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios  : an exercise for {P}iton de la {F}ournaise volcano, {L}a {R}{\'e}union island},
  author = {{T}adini, {A}. and {H}arris, {A}. and {M}orin, {J}. and {B}evilacqua, {A}. and {P}eltier, {A}. and {A}spinall, {W}. and {C}iolli, {S}. and {B}ach{\`e}lery, {P}. and {B}ernard, {B}. and {B}iren, {J}. and {B}rum da {S}ilveira, {A}. and {C}ayol, {V}. and {C}hevrel, {M}agdalena {O}ryaelle and {C}oppola, {D}. and {D}ietterich, {H}. and {D}onovan, {A}. and {D}orado, {O}. and {D}renne, {S}. and {D}up{\'e}r{\'e}, {O}. and {G}urioli, {L}. and {K}olzenburg, {S}. and {K}omorowski, {J}.{C}. and {L}abazuy, {P}. and {M}angione, {D}. and {M}annini, {S}. and {M}artel-{A}sselin, {F}. and {M}{\'e}dard, {E}. and {P}ialot-{B}onn{\'e}tat, {S}. and {R}afflin, {V}. and {R}amsey, {M}. and {R}ichter, {N}. and {V}allejo, {S}. and {V}illeneuve, {N}. and {Z}afrilla, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}ormalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. {W}e present an expert elicitation exercise for {P}iton de la {F}ournaise volcano, {L}a {R}{\'e}union island, held remotely in {A}pril 2021. {T}his involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. {T}he tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. {O}ur exercise considered an 'uncommon' eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe;  elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). {O}ur exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics  compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.},
  keywords = {{REUNION} ; {PITON} {DE} {LA} {FOURNAISE} {VOLCAN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{V}olcanica},
  volume = {5},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {105--131},
  ISSN = {2610-3540},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.30909/vol.05.01.105131 },
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088392},
}