@article{fdi:010088092,
  title = {{S}hrinking of the {A}rabian {S}ea oxygen minimum zone with climate change projected with a downscaled model},
  author = {{V}allivattathillam, {P}. and {L}achkar, {Z}. and {L}evy, {M}arina},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}n {A}rabian {S}ea ({AS}), land-locked northern boundary and strong seasonal productivity lead to the formation of one of the most intense open ocean {O}xygen {M}inimum {Z}ones ({OMZ}s). {P}resence of this perennial {OMZ} has significant consequences on adjacent coastal fisheries and ecosystem. {S}imulations from {CMIP}5 suggest significant weakening of both monsoonal winds and productivity under high emission scenario. {B}ut the fate of {AS} {OMZ} in this scenario - whether it will expand or shrink - still remains elusive, mainly due to poor representation of extent and strength of {AS} {OMZ} in {CMIP}5 present-day simulations. {T}o address this, we analyze the distribution of {O}-2 in {AS} from a subset of three contrasted {CMIP}5 simulations, and complemented with a set of regional downscaled model experiments which we forced at surface and open boundaries using information from those three {CMIP}5 models. {W}e tested two regional downscaling approaches - with and without correction of {CMIP}5 biases with respect to observations. {U}sing a set of sensitivity experiments, we disentangle the contributions of local (atmospheric) forcing vs. remote (at the lateral boundaries) forcing in driving the future projected {O}-2 changes. {W}hile {CMIP}5 projects either shrinking or expansion of the {AS} {OMZ} depending on the model, our downscaling experiments consistently project a shrinking of {AS} {OMZ}. {W}e show that projected {O}-2 changes in {OMZ} layer are affected by both local and remote processes. {I}n the southern {AS}, the main response to climate change is oxygenation that originates from the boundaries, and hence downscalled and {CMIP}5 model responses are similar. {I}n contrast, in northern {AS}, downscaling yields a substantial reduction in {O}-2 projection discrepancies because of a minimal influence of remote forcing there leading to a stronger sensitivity to improved local physics and improved model representation of present-day conditions. {W}e find that when corrected for present-day biases, projected deoxygenation in the northern {AS} is shallower. {O}ur findings indicate the importance of downscaling of global models in regions where local forcing is dominant, and the need for correcting global model biases with respect to observations to reduce uncertainties in future {O}-2 projections.},
  keywords = {{A}rabian {S}ea ; climate change ; oxygen minimum zone ; downscaling ; {CMIP}5 ; ocean modeling ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {MER} {D}'{ARABIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}rontiers in {M}arine {S}cience},
  volume = {10},
  numero = {},
  pages = {1123739 [16 p.]},
  year = {2023},
  DOI = {10.3389/fmars.2023.1123739},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010088092},
}