@article{fdi:010085928,
  title = {{C}ombination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time : challenges and potential solutions},
  author = {{B}efort, {D}. {J}. and {B}runner, {L}. and {B}orchert, {L}. {F}. and {O}'{R}eilly, {C}. {H}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {B}allinger, {A}. {P}. and {H}egerl, {G}. {C}. and {M}urphy, {J}. {M}. and {W}eisheimer, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. {R}esults for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has potential to provide meaningful information but can also introduce significant inconsistencies. {I}nconsistencies are often most pronounced for relatively extreme quantiles of the {CMIP}6 multi-model ensemble distribution, whereas they are generally smaller and mostly insignificant for quantiles close to the median. {T}he regions most affected are the {N}orth {A}tlantic, {G}reenland and {N}orthern {E}urope. {T}wo potential ways to reduce inconsistencies are discussed, including a simple calibration method and a weighting approach based on model performance. {C}alibration generally reduces inconsistencies but does not eliminate all of them. {T}he impact of model weighting is minor, which is found to be linked to the small size of the decadal climate prediction ensemble, which in turn limits the applicability of that method.},
  keywords = {decadal predictions ; climate projections ; seamless prediction ; calibration ; weighting},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {49},
  numero = {15},
  pages = {e2022{GL}098568 [11 ]},
  ISSN = {0094-8276},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1029/2022gl098568},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010085928},
}