@article{fdi:010085179,
  title = {{P}ropagation of thermohaline anomalies and their predictive potential along the {A}tlantic water pathway},
  author = {{L}angehaug, {H}. {R}. and {O}rtega, {P}. and {C}ounillon, {F}. and {M}atei, {D}. and {M}aroon, {E}. and {K}eenlyside, {N}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {W}ang, {Y}. and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {B}ethke, {I}. and {Y}ang, {S}. and {D}anabasoglu, {G}. and {B}ellucci, {A}. and {R}uggieri, {P}. and {N}icoli, {D}. and {A}rthun, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}e assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature ({SST}) in the subpolar {N}orth {A}tlantic and the {N}ordic seas in the period 1970-2005. {W}e focus on the region where warm water flows poleward (i.e., the {A}tlantic water pathway to the {A}rctic) and on interannualto-decadal time scales. {O}bservational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that {SST} skill is low with significant skill only at a lead time of 1-2 years. {T}o better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatiotemporal {SST} pattern based on observations. {T}he physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents, the {N}orth {A}tlantic {C}urrent and the {N}orwegian {A}tlantic {C}urrent. {W}e find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. {T}o identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. {T}hese simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatiotemporal {SST} pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. {H}owever, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. {W}ays to enhance predictions could include improved initialization and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. {T}his might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and the physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved.},
  keywords = {{O}cean circulation ; {C}limate prediction ; {D}ecadal variability},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {35},
  numero = {7},
  pages = {2111--2131},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1175/jcli-d-20-1007.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010085179},
}