@article{fdi:010084546,
  title = {{C}ontrols on the spatio-temporal patterns of induced seismicity in {G}roningen constrained by physics-based modelling with {E}nsemble-{S}moother data assimilation},
  author = {{C}andela, {T}. and {P}luymaekers, {M}. and {A}mpuero, {J}ean-{P}aul and {V}an {W}ees, {J}. {D}. and {B}uijze, {L}. and {W}assing, {B}. and {O}singa, {S}. and {G}robbe, {N}. and {M}untendam-{B}os, {A}. {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he induced seismicity in the {G}roningen gas field, {T}he {N}etherlands, presents contrasted spatio-temporal patterns between the central area and the south west area. {U}nderstanding the origin of this contrast requires a thorough assessment of two factors: (1) the stress development on the {G}roningen faults and (2) the frictional response of the faults to induced stresses. {B}oth factors have large uncertainties that must be honoured and then reduced with the observational constraints. {E}nsembles of induced stress realizations are built by varying the {P}oisson's ratio in a poro-elastic model incorporating the 3-{D} complexities of the geometries of the {G}roningen gas reservoir and its faults, and the historical pore pressure distribution. {T}he a priori uncertainties in the frictional response are mapped by varying the parameters of a seismicity model based on rate-and-state friction. {T}he uncertainties of each component of this complex physics-based model are honoured through an efficient data assimilation algorithm. {B}y assimilating the seismicity data with an {E}nsemble-{S}moother, the prior uncertainties of each model parameter are effectively reduced, and the posterior seismicity rate predictions are consistent with the observations. {O}ur integrated workflow allows us to disentangle the contributions of the main two factors controlling the induced seismicity at {G}roningen, induced stress development and fault frictional response. {P}osterior distributions of the model parameters of each modelling component are contrasted between the central and south west area at {G}roningen. {W}e find that, even after honouring the spatial heterogeneity in stress development across the {G}roningen gas field, the spatial variability of the observed induced seismicity rate still requires spatial heterogeneity in the fault frictional response. {T}his work is enabled by the unprecedented deployment of an {E}nsemble-{S}moother combined with physics-based modelling over a complex case of reservoir induced seismicity.},
  keywords = {{F}riction ; {G}eomechanics ; {I}nverse theory ; {I}nduced seismicity ; {PAYS} {BAS} ; {GRONINGUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {J}ournal {I}nternational},
  volume = {229},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {1282--1308},
  ISSN = {0956-540{X}},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.1093/gji/ggab497},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010084546},
}