@article{fdi:010084302,
  title = {{E}pidemiological and clinical insights from {SARS}-{C}o{V}-2 {RT}-{PCR} crossing threshold values, {F}rance, {J}anuary to {N}ovember 2020},
  author = {{A}lizon, {S}. and {S}elinger, {C}hristian and {S}ofonea, {M}. {T}. and {H}aim-{B}oukobza, {S}. and {G}iannoli, {J}. {M}. and {N}inove, {L}. and {P}illet, {S}. and {T}hibault, {V}. and de {R}ougemont, {A}. and {T}umiotto, {C}. and {S}olis, {M}. and {S}tephan, {R}. and {B}ressollette-{B}odin, {C}. and {S}almona, {M}. and {L}'{H}onneur, {A}. {S}. and {B}ehillil, {S}. and {L}efeuvre, {C}. and {D}ina, {J}. and {H}antz, {S}. and {H}artard, {C}. and {V}eyer, {D}. and {D}elagreverie, {H}. {M}. and {F}ourati, {S}. and {V}isseaux, {B}. and {H}enquell, {C}. and {L}ina, {B}. and {F}oulongne, {V}. and {B}urrel, {S}. and {SFM} {C}ovid {S}tudy {G}roup,},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {T}he {COVID}-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented daily use of {RT}-{PCR} tests. {T}hese tests are interpreted qualitatively for diagnosis, and the relevance of the test result intensity, i.e. the number of quantification cycles ({C}q), is debated because of strong potential biases. {A}im: {W}e explored the possibility to use {C}q values from {SARS}-{C}o{V}-2 screening tests to better understand the spread of an epidemic and to better understand the biology of the infection. {M}ethods: {W}e used linear regression models to analyse a large database of 793,479 {C}q values from tests performed on more than 2 million samples between 21 {J}anuary and 30 {N}ovember 2020, i.e. the first two pandemic waves. {W}e performed time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average ({ARIMA}) models to estimate whether {C}q data information improves short-term predictions of epidemiological dynamics. {R}esults: {A}lthough we found that the {C}q values varied depending on the testing laboratory or the assay used, we detected strong significant trends associated with patient age, number of days after symptoms onset or the state of the epidemic (the temporal reproduction number) at the time of the test. {F}urthermore, knowing the quartiles of the {C}q distribution greatly reduced the error in predicting the temporal reproduction number of the {COVID}-19 epidemic. {C}onclusion: {O}ur results suggest that {C}q values of screening tests performed in the general population generate testable hypotheses and help improve shortterm predictions for epidemic surveillance.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}urosurveillance},
  volume = {27},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {2100406 [8 ]},
  ISSN = {1025-496{X}},
  year = {2022},
  DOI = {10.2807/1560-7917.{E}s.2022.27.6.2100406},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010084302},
}